Yesterday Andrew Perna, one of the editors over at RealGM (and one of the few people on that site who actually know anything about the sport, but that's another story) previewed the Raps. I happen to agree with a lot of what he has to say, but I'd like to analyze what he has to say and add some commentary of my own.
Read the full article.
On Jose Calderon:
"After playing in all 82 games during the 2007-08 season, Jose Calderon missed 14 contests last year. Regardless of the time he missed, Calderon averaged career-highs in points (12.8), assists (8.9) and minutes per game (34.3). As Toronto’s best play-maker, he had a 41.0 assist percentage, which quantifies his chemistry with teammates Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.
He isn’t an explosive scorer by any means, but is careful with the basketball and is extremely reliable at the foul-line. His defense is decent, although he is often beaten by faster point guards."
I don't think Perna gives Jose enough credit for his scoring abilities. He set a career high in points by about a point and a half, but that included a drop of 20 points in his FG% and 25 in 3PT%. He was definitively the leader of the team last year for the first time, so his shots per game did rise, but I think it's more than likely that his drop in percentages and lack of an explosion in his scoring average (as some analysts predicted) was due to his playing hurt for most of the season. Also, it's a tad generous to say he's a "decent" defender, though his injury may have had an effect here as well.
On Raptors swingmen:
"DeRozan is an interesting piece, especially since his role isn’t exactly clear-cut. Turkoglu could take a majority of the minutes at small forward, or even shooting guard, but Belinelli should have to show something significant in order to lock down a majority of the perimeter minutes over the rookie. The former Trojan is raw, but his potential may be higher than any other member of his class.
If Belinelli blossoms in Toronto, the three-man rotation of the Italian, the Turk and the American could help the Raptors climb near the top of the Eastern Conference."
I would assume that Jay Triano is spending most of this training camp giving every player a defined role (at least I hope he is). The comparisons between this team and last year's Magic have been beaten to death, but it's not at all out of the question for DMDR to have a similar season to Courtney Lee's last year - defend hard, get easy buckets in transition, and contribute offensively when he's hot. With regards to his potential, I agree, and he's already gotten much stronger to add to his prototypical swingman build. The final point is the one I think resonates strongest, though: should Belinelli have a big season (think 12-15 PPG or so) he could very well be this team's Manu Ginobili-type sparkplug off the bench, something we missed dearly last year with all the injuries and poor play.
On the season:
"Forecast: Colangelo believes that the Raptors can be a 50-win team with home-court advantage in the postseason. That’s not out of the realm of possibility, but the club will have to gel quickly and their studs (Calderon, Turkoglu, Bosh and Bargnani) will have to remain healthy in order to have a shot. They’ll finish with around 45 wins, which should put them in the four-six range in terms of playoff seeding. They aren’t anywhere near the beasts of the East (Boston, Orlando and Cleveland), but there isn’t any reason why they can’t complete with or surpass the rest (Atlanta, Miami, Chicago and Philadelphia)."
I agree here 100%. The Raps will likely steal a couple victories from the big dogs in the East but they'll have to defend their turf against the second tier if they plan to win those 50 games. It's certainly possible, especially if the young guys take a step forward and Chris Bosh's added weight brings him to the next level.
Soon PH will bring you our season preview. Remember, tonight the Raps take on the T-Wolves in Minnesota at 8 PM EST.
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